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Be ready for the scorching heat this year
Weather Forecast: Winter is now ready to leave the country and summer is about to knock. However, snowfall is still going on in the hilly areas. Meteorologists predict that there will be a lot of heat this year. The reason for this has been attributed to El Nino. Scientists have warned of potentially extremely warm weather this year due to the El Nino climate pattern, according to preliminary data, although they acknowledge that the annual monsoon and rains are already ahead. Estimating the effect of Nino may not be accurate.
According to the latest probability estimates from the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), there is about a 50% chance of El Niño conditions prevailing during the months of June, July and August and a 58% chance in July, August and September . After three consecutive years of La Nina effect, scientists around the world are anticipating the emergence of El Nino conditions. According to the latest data, there is a low probability of this happening in March-April-May, which rises to about 15% in April-May-June and about 37% in May-June-July.
IMD will issue forecast
NOAA has said that the effect of El Nino will be visible in India as El Nino is closely related to warm and weak monsoon rains in the country. The India Meteorological Department or IMD also believes the same. According to IMD “La Nina conditions are weakening. There is a 50% chance of El Nino conditions forming during the pre-monsoon season and subsequent monsoon. IMD Director General M Mohapatra said immediately commenting on the impact of El Nino So difficult. There is still three-four months for the El Nino season to start in India so the forecast may not be accurate. We will issue our latest ENSO forecast on 28 February.”
Scientists worry about El Nino after La Nina
An expert said that the move from La Nina to El Nino is worrying in itself. Mahesh Palawat, Vice President, Climate & Meteorology, Skymet Weather, said that “A developed El Nino is more dangerous than an El Nino condition for some time. We are seeing El Nino conditions developing now. Very soon neutral condition of ENSO will be recorded and then El Nino will develop during monsoon. A moderate El Nino is likely to have an impact on the monsoon. This may reduce rainfall but we cannot say immediately whether the monsoon will be below normal or not.
He said that this year there is no possibility of an extra monsoon year. So far we have seen above normal temperatures and even a severe summer last spring, despite La Nina conditions. This spring may not be as bad but temperatures are expected to be above normal in February and March. Summer temperatures can be very high.
There is a possibility of severe heat this year
M Rajeevan, Secretary, Ministry of Earth Sciences, has said that the current La Nina has been relatively weak but unusually prolonged. It started in 2020 and now “a moderate El Nino could affect the monsoon. It may reduce the amount of rainfall, but at the moment, it is difficult to say by how much it will affect and whether the monsoon will be below normal or not. If positive Indian Ocean Dipole conditions occur during those months, it can help the monsoon. We have to closely monitor other parameters as well. ,
Rajeevan said that it is certain that 2023 will see a severe heat wave and has recommended early adaptation plans, adding that “I am quite sure that this year will be a severe heat wave and that Pacific Ocean warming will have a widespread impact.” . It’s important that we have heat adaptation plans.”
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